Note that ARIBs are generally derived from public records and are not meant to be exhaustive or complete assessments of every issue.

Top Risks in November 2024

• Escalating Geopolitical Unrest in Europe, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa: The enduring Ukraine-Russia conflict remains a focal point, surpassing two years of hostilities. Meanwhile, 2,000 miles to the south, Israel’s violent confrontations with Palestinian groups and Hezbollah in Lebanon have intensified, risking the involvement of Iran and increasing the likelihood of a broader regional conflict. In Sub-Saharan Africa, political instability and civil wars are also deepening, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, and the Sahel—issues that leaders cannot afford to overlook (Council on Foreign Relations, 2024).
• Rising Cybersecurity Threats to Aviation Infrastructure: While no major, publicly disclosed cybersecurity incidents have affected the aviation industry in the last 30 days, leaders are reminded of August’s cyberattack on Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (ICAO: KSEA), which crippled internet, phone, and email systems for days. Hackers demanded a $6 million ransom in bitcoin, but the Port of Seattle opted for manual system restoration—efforts that continue today (Associated Press, 2024). This incident highlights the urgent need for robust cybersecurity measures and proactive risk management across aviation infrastructure.
• Weather-Related Disruptions in Southeast Asia: The ongoing typhoon season is set to disrupt regional flight and airport operations, with several countries experiencing back-to-back storms. The Philippines exemplifies the severity, having been struck by two typhoons in the past 30 days alone. (Associated Press, 2024)

Risk Outlook for December 2024

• High-Risk Regions: Europe and the Middle East (airspace advisories and GPS interference), North America and Europe (cyber threats), Asia (extreme weather), and North America (seasonal weather delays).
• Emerging Trends: With U.S. elections approaching, the potential for civil unrest is a primary focus. Threat actors from Russia, the Middle East, and Asia are expected to ramp up misinformation efforts in the coming weeks, though we consider it unlikely they will target aviation infrastructure. Likely, conflicts across Europe, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa will intensify over the next 30 days, with particular attention on escalating tensions between Israel and Iran—a potential flashpoint for a broader regional conflict that could draw in global forces.