Precision in Predicting Future Events
Overview
At Aviation Risk Intelligence (ARI), our mission is to provide actionable intelligence that empowers policymakers and aviation leaders. We are committed to this goal and to supporting you in your decision-making.
Our goal is to equip you with the tools and insights to make informed decisions in the aviation industry. To achieve this, we utilize probabilistic terms to convey analytical assessments and judgments. These statements are not facts or proof but assessments and judgments based on information that is often incomplete or collected from multiple sources. In all cases, these statements are not intended to show proof or link items discussed within our work products.
Estimates of Likelihood
Our methodology attempts to incorporate constant terms to assign probability inspired by the work of Sherman Kent, former chief of the Central Intelligence Agency‘s Office of National Estimates and Yale University history professor. The chart below shows probabilistic words and provides a rough idea of the relation some of these terms have to each other:
Table 1 The relationship between different terms used to convey the likelihood of future events.
Confidence in Our Assessments
Our assessments and estimates are grounded in information collected from various sources. Therefore, we assign high, moderate, or low levels of confidence to our assessments:
- High Confidence – This level indicates that our judgments are based on high-quality information, and/or the nature of the issue allows for a solid judgment. However, a “high confidence” judgment is not a fact or certainty and still carries a risk of being incorrect.
- Moderate Confidence – This level means that the information is credibly sourced and plausible but not of sufficient quality or corroboration to warrant a higher level of confidence.
- Low Confidence – This level signifies that the information’s credibility and/or plausibility is questionable or that it is too fragmented or poorly corroborated to make solid analytic inferences. It may also indicate significant concerns or issues with the sources.
Closing
By integrating these consistent terms, ARI seeks to provide a structured and transparent way to assess and communicate the likelihood of future events. This transparent approach allows us to offer precise, actionable insights that help you navigate uncertainties and make informed decisions in a rapidly evolving world.
Sources
Central Intelligence Agency
- Words of Estimative Probability (Kent, Sherman)
Office of the Director of National Intelligence
National Intelligence Council